UK House prices: A case of what goes up must come down?

Published 15th of September, 2021

Picture credit: Susan Q Yin


The average house price in the UK is £255,535, average prices have increased by 8.0% or (£18,848) over the last year, and decreased by 8.0% or (£9,913) last month. We note that these figures are provisional and subject to change, however, the size and the scale of these increases reflects a reduction in housing market activity following the first of two reductions in the Stamp Duty Holiday benefit threshold. The Stamp Duty Holiday benefit level reduced from £500,000 on the 30 June 2021 to £250,000 from 1 July 2021 and the stamp duty holiday will come to an end on 30 September 2021.

UK average house prices have increased by 15.2% (£35,059) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.


UK average house prices fall in July

UK house prices fell across all regions in July 2021, falling on average by £9,913 following the first of two stamp duty holiday deadlines. 

Whilst significant, the price falls in July are subject to change and in our view reflect a short term adjustment following a period of very high stamp duty related housing market activity. In the medium term we expect demand to underpin house prices as homes for sale remain in short supply, in our view.

In this article, we look at the house price performance of each region across England and Wales.

UK house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

Whilst we often talk about the UK Housing market as one market, it is in fact a collection of hundreds and thousands of small local markets. House prices can vary significantly between these different housing markets. We show in the table below the different house prices across the regions of England and Wales

The range of house prices is quite large from average house prices of £144,900 in the North East to average house prices of £587,000 in Inner London.

Average house price graph chart by UK region land registry data twindig anthony codling

There are also regional variations in house price inflation. Over the last 12 months, house price inflation across the UK was 8.0%, but varied from 0.8% in Inner London to 11.6% in Wales.

We show in the table below a summary of the regional house prices and annual house price inflation, house price inflation in the last month and house price inflation since the start of the COVID Pandemic in the UK.

Table to show annual house price inflation and house price inflation since Brexit and since COVID pandemic twindig anthony codling

The chart below shows annual house price inflation by region in England and Wales and house price inflation since the start of the COVID Pandemic. All regions of London are underperforming the house price trends elsewhere across the UK.

Graph chart showing annual house price inflation by UK region and house price inflation since COVID twindig anthony codling

In the chart below we show the average house price inflation by region in England and Wales since the EU Brexit referendum in June 2016. House prices have risen the most in the North East up 29.9%, followed by Wales 28.3% and Yorkshire and Humberside up 25.9%.

Graph chart to show house price inflation by UK region since the Brexit Referendum twindig anthony codling

House prices have risen the least in Outer London up just 3.6% and the South East up 5.7% since the EU Brexit Referendum, the areas where the remain vote was stronger than in the rest of the country.

The changes in average house prices since the EU Brexit Referendum broadly reflect the regional voting patterns with higher house price inflation in those regions with a strong leave vote and lower house price inflation with a stronger remain vote.

How much is my house worth?

If you would like to quickly see how much your house is worth you can do so by visiting twindig.com we have details of every house across the country, all 28 million, not just the one million or so that are currently for sale or rent

House prices in England

The average house price in England is £271,000. House prices in England have increased by 11.6% over the last year, fallen by 4.5% over the last month, increased by 9.8% since COVID and are up 18.6% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in Wales

The average house price in Wales is £188,000. House prices in Wales have increased by 11.6% over the last year, fallen by 4.0% over the last month, increased by 13.3% since COVID and by 28.3% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

Wales house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling


House prices in Outer London

The average house price in Outer London is £453,200. House prices in Outer London have increased by 6.0% over the last year, fallen by 0.4% over the last month, risen by 7.0% since COVID and by 3.6% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

Outer London England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in London

The average house price in London is £494,700. House prices in London have increased by 2.2% over the last year, fallen by 2.0% over the last month, increased by 4.3% since COVID and by 18.6% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

LOndon England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in Inner London

The average house price in Inner London is £587,000. House prices in Inner London have increased by 0.8% over the last year, remain largely unchanged over the last month and increased by 0.8% since COVID and by 24.9% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

Inner LOndon England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices the South West

The average house price in the South West is £277,200. House prices in the South West have increased by 5.2% over the last year, and fallen 5.8% over the last month and increased by 8.2% since COVID and by 16.1% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

South West England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices the West Midlands

The average house price in the West Midlands is £220,800. House prices in the West Midlands have increased by 8.5% over the last year, fallen by 4.9% over the last month and increased by 10.9% since COVID and by 16.7% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

West Midlands England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices the South East

The average house price in the South East is £354,300. House prices in the South East have increased by 8.8% over the last year, fallen by 1.3% over the last month and increased by 11.3% since COVID and by 5.7% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

South East England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in the East of England

The average house price in the East of England is £312,100. House prices in the East of England have increased by 6.8% over the last year, fallen by 3.8% over the last month and increased by 8.0% since COVID and by 19.9% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

East of England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices Yorkshire and Humberside

The average house price in Yorkshire and Humberside is £180,300. House prices in Yorkshire and Humberside have increased by 6.9% over the last year, fallen by 6.8% over the last month and increased by 9.7% since COVID and by 25.9% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

Yorkshire and HUmberside England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in the East Midlands

The average house price in the East Midlands is £214,200. House prices in the East Midlands have increased by 6.9% over the last year, fallen by 5.5% over the last month and increased by 10.7% since COVID and by 25.0% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

East Midlands England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in the North West

The average house price in the North West is £185,200. House prices in the North West have increased by 8.1% over the last year, fallen by 7.6% over the last month and increased by 12.4% since COVID and by 14.2% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

North West England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

House prices in the North East

The average house price in the North East is £144,900. House prices in the North East have increased by 10.8% over the last year, fallen by 3.5% over the last month and increased by 14.1% since COVID and by 29.9% since the EU Brexit Referendum.

North East England house price graph chart since May 2019 land registry data twindig anthony codling

Average UK House Prices and Stamp Duty Holiday

The average house price in the UK has increased by £18,848 since there start of the Stamp Duty Holiday to £255,535 which equates to a Stamp Duty saving of £2,777 if completing before 30 June 2021 and £2,500 thereafter

The average UK house price has therefore increased by £16,348 more than the potential Stamp Duty since the start of the Stamp Duty Holiday.

We show the change in house prices and stamp duty savings in the table below and also a chart to show how much more average house prices have increased than the potential stamp duty saving

Table showing house price inflation and UK house prices since the stamp duty holiday and stamp duty savings twindig anthony codling

House price increases less stamp duty saving

Graph chart showing house price increases less the stamp duty savings since the start of the COVID stamp duty holiday twindig anthony codling
Anthony Codling
CEO, Twindig

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