Twindig Housing Market Index (HMI) - 26 June 21

The Twindig Housing Market Index fell for the third week in a row this week, falling by 2.2% to 92.9. The UK housing market itself had a good week as housebuilders Berkeley Group and Crest Nicholson reported strong results and a positive outlook for the housing market. Persimmon and Aviva also sought to take some of the sting out of the long-running leasehold and ground rent scandals by offering retrospective solutions. Investor confidence may have been hit by the housing transaction data, which dipped by 4% in May although, in our view, this is a temporary blip caused by the changes in the closing date of the Stamp duty Holiday. Our sources on the front line tell us that the housing market is currently running at full speed as we approach the next stamp first of two stamp duty holiday deadlines next Wednesday.

We also learnt this week the importance of choosing your grandparents well as the Bank of gran and grandad has stumped up £1m per day since the start of the Stamp Duty Holiday, which in our view suggests, not for the first time, that house prices are the elephant in the room.  

We suspect that the rise of the COVID-19 delta variant and continued uncertainty over summer travel plans has reduced investors optimism about the housing market as the prospect of limited sun sand and sangria and the increasing risk of a third wave weighs on the broader economic outlook.