Twindig Housing Market Index (HMI) - 19 June 21

The Twindig Housing Market Index fell for the second week in a row this week from 95.6 to 95.0. A small fall yes, a mere 0.7%, but a fall nonetheless. The fall came in a week when the Land Registry (the most accurate provider of house price data, in our view) reported that house prices fell in April 2021. One fall does not a crash make and we do not expect the downward trajectory to continue for long. We suspect this was driven by the Stamp Duty Holiday, which was initially expected to end on 31 March 2021 and therefore prices agreed for completions scheduled in April factored in the loss of the Stamp Duty holiday benefit.

The Stamp Duty holiday was subsequently extended with a full holiday until 30 June 2021 and a partial one reaching out to 30 September. These two dates will likely lead to some house price noise, but we expect the broader direction of the UK economy to be a better guide for house prices in the coming months.

Meanwhile housebuilder Bellway and estate agent Belvoir reported that the housing market itself is in fine fettle and both are feeling positive about the longer-term outlook. This, in our view, is more telling and more representative of the state of the UK housing market than a single point in time snapshot of house prices however accurate that snapshot is.