Twindig Housing Market Index (HMI) - 13 Feb 21

Investor confidence in the UK housing market nudged the Twindig Housing Market Index up by 1.4% to 88.7% this week. Strong results were reported by housebuilders Bellway and Redrow and their forward orderbooks are holding up well, which should help alley fears of stamp duty holiday-related cliff edges. Whilst trade deals remain uncertain and we learnt that UK GDP fell by 10% in 2020, the UK housing market continued to provide a safe harbour (or should that be castle..)

The fall in GDP in 2020 was more than twice as much as the previous largest annual fall on record according to the ONS.

The closest the UK housing market came to a fall was in the latest RICS Residential Housing Market Survey this week, which reported that the pipeline is beginning to thin as the chances of beating the Stamp Duty Holiday deadline slip away. Our take is that stamp duty holiday history appears to be repeating itself, a rush of activity followed by a lull. This is to be expected and should help lead to a more manageable and less frenzied housing market, which will be no bad thing as big decisions like house purchases should not be rushed, in our view.