Twindig Housing Market Index (HMI) - 6 Mar 2021

The Twindig Housing Market index rose by 3.1% to 89.7 this week as the housing market boosting Budget increased investor confidence in the UK housing market. Housebuilders saw the biggest rise in investor confidence up almost 10%, but interestingly confidence in the estate agency sector was broadly flat.

This surprised us as the Stamp Duty Holiday extension and Mortgage Guarantee Schemes announced in the Budget do more to benefit estate agents than housebuilders in our view. Ahead of the Budget housebuilders already have full orderbooks and the benefits of help to buy, whereas estate agents were starting to see activity levels fall. However, following the Budget we have heard many reports of estate agents phones ringing off their hooks.

We expect house prices to rise in the coming months as a result of this week’s Budget. Following the Budget, we expect confidence in the UK housing market also to rise until we start to approach the next stamp duty holiday cliff edge. We appreciate that the drop from the next cliff won’t be as high, but we also believe more homebuyers will be standing near the cliff edge in September than were near the cliff edge in March.