House price bulls 13, House price bears nil

Nationwide released their house price index for August 2022 this week

What Nationwide said

Average UK house price £273,751
Annual house price inflation +10.0%
Increase last month +0.8%

Twindig take

According to the latest data from the Nationwide, House prices have now risen for 13 months in a row. Talk of the end of rising house prices appears to be somewhat premature. Yes the rate annual house price growth has been slowing, but double digit growth annual growth is still around 60% higher than the long run average, so not to be sniffed at.

Demand from homebuyers continues to outweigh the supply of homes for sale, even though the new buyer enquiries is starting to reduce and the number of mortgage approvals has dipped (very slightly) below the long run average.

Rising energy bills and interest rates are likely to take some of the heat out of the housing market, but so far it is difficult to see any significant impact of either on housing market transactions and house prices.

We show in the chart below the rolling annual house price inflation from the Nationwide House Price Index, which although slowing in recent months remains high and in double digits.

In summary there is little for the house price bears to see in the latest data and it remains a case of house price bulls 13, house price bears nil in terms of the last 13 months of house price moves.