A big year for housing transactions

Published 24th of January, 2023

Graph chart UK housing transactions December 2022

HMRC released provisional housing transaction data for December 2022 today

What they said

Housing transactions in December 2022 were 101,920

This is 2.6% lower than in November 2022

This is 1.4% higher than in December 2021

Twindig take

Surprisingly robust

In our view, housing transactions were surprisingly robust in December 2022. It is perhaps a little early to start seeing the impact of the mini-budget disrupted mortgage rates, but we did not expect housing transactions to be higher than they were one year ago.   

At 101,920 housing transactions in December were 4% higher than their long-run average. 

A big year

Looking at the year as a whole, the volume of housing transactions for 2022 was 1.26 million, the second-highest level since the credit crunch.

Graph chart annual housing transactions UK 2013 to 2022 Twindig Housing Hailey

Don't expect more of the same

Whilst the housing market had a solid finish to 2022, do not expect more of the same. Mortgage approvals, the main lead indicator for housing transactions, have declined since September's mini-budget. We expect these lower mortgage approval volumes to feed into lower housing transaction volumes during 2023.

This year will be a quieter year in terms of housing transactions as the housing market adjusts to a higher mortgage rate environment. That said we expect mortgage rates to start to fall in the second half of the year.

Housing Hailey

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